1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 1–0 Ofspor: Result & Stats

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ofspor

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKelkit İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor51%

×Draw30%

Ofspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1954 Kelkit BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchOfspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.63

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

1.25

Ofspor

0.63

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor creates 98% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

1.00

Ofspor

1.00

allows per match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

0.25

Ofspor

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor+0.00on par

Ofspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor ↓

Ofspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor or draw

81%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor or Ofspor

70%

Draw or Ofspor

49%

Winning margin

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor wins by 2+

24%

Ofspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 1+ goals

71%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 2+ goals

36%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 3+ goals

13%

Ofspor 1+ goals

47%

Ofspor 2+ goals

13%

Ofspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor (draw refunded)

73%

Ofspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Ofspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Ofspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ofspor attack 1.00 + 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor scores more

51%

level

30%

Ofspor scores more

19%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1954 Kelkit Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff