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1954 Kelkit Belediyespor vs Artvin Hopaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor
1954 Kelkit Belediyespor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Artvin Hopaspor
Artvin Hopaspor
10/21/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKelkit İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor73%
×Draw22%
Artvin Hopaspor5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor
1.63
Artvin Hopaspor
0.25

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor creates 552% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor
1.00
Artvin Hopaspor
0.25

allows per match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor
0.25
Artvin Hopaspor
2.25

finishing

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor+0.00on par
Artvin Hopaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

82%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor ↓

Artvin Hopaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–14%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor or draw
95%
1954 Kelkit Belediyespor or Artvin Hopaspor
78%
Draw or Artvin Hopaspor
27%

Winning margin

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor wins by 2+
42%
Artvin Hopaspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 1+ goals
80%
1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 2+ goals
48%
1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 3+ goals
22%
Artvin Hopaspor 1+ goals
22%
Artvin Hopaspor 2+ goals
3%
Artvin Hopaspor 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor (draw refunded)
93%
Artvin Hopaspor (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Artvin Hopaspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Artvin Hopaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Artvin Hopaspor attack 0.25 + 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor scores more
73%
level
22%
Artvin Hopaspor scores more
5%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "1954 Kelkit Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor vs Artvin Hopaspor

Artvin Hopaspor beat 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Kelkit İlçe Stadı in Kelkit.