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1899 Hoffenheim W vs Valur W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

1899 Hoffenheim W
1899 Hoffenheim Wadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valur W
Valur W
8/17/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim W53%
×Draw22%
Valur W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1899 Hoffenheim W
1.92
Valur W
1.25

1899 Hoffenheim W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim W
2.50
Valur W
1.00

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim W
1.50
Valur W
1.33

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim W+0.00on par
Valur W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim W ↓

Valur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim W or draw
75%
1899 Hoffenheim W or Valur W
78%
Draw or Valur W
47%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim W wins by 2+
30%
Valur W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim W 1+ goals
85%
1899 Hoffenheim W 2+ goals
57%
1899 Hoffenheim W 3+ goals
30%
Valur W 1+ goals
71%
Valur W 2+ goals
36%
Valur W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim W (draw refunded)
68%
Valur W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Valur W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim W attack 2.50 + Valur W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Valur W attack 1.00 + 1899 Hoffenheim W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

1899 Hoffenheim W scores more
53%
level
22%
Valur W scores more
25%

1899 Hoffenheim W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: 1899 Hoffenheim W 1–0 Valur W

1899 Hoffenheim W beat Valur W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.