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1877 Alemdağspor vs Sancaktepe Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1877 Alemdağspor
1877 Alemdağspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
9/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAlemdağ Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1877 Alemdağspor40%
×Draw27%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1877 Alemdağspor
1.33
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.17

1877 Alemdağspor creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.67
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.33
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

finishing

1877 Alemdağspor+0.00on par
Sancaktepe Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1877 Alemdağspor ↓

Sancaktepe Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

1877 Alemdağspor or draw
67%
1877 Alemdağspor or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
73%
Draw or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
60%

Winning margin

1877 Alemdağspor wins by 2+
18%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

1877 Alemdağspor 1+ goals
74%
1877 Alemdağspor 2+ goals
38%
1877 Alemdağspor 3+ goals
15%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 1+ goals
69%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 2+ goals
33%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

1877 Alemdağspor (draw refunded)
55%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1877 Alemdağspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sancaktepe Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1877 Alemdağspor attack 1.67 + Sancaktepe Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sancaktepe Belediyespor attack 1.00 + 1877 Alemdağspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1877 Alemdağspor scores more
40%
level
27%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor scores more
33%

1877 Alemdağspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1877 Alemdağspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 1877 Alemdağspor 0–3 Sancaktepe Belediyespor

Sancaktepe Belediyespor beat 1877 Alemdağspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Alemdağ Stadyumu in İstanbul.