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1877 Alemdağspor vs Modafen — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1877 Alemdağspor
1877 Alemdağspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Modafen
Modafen
8/28/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundAlemdağ Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1877 Alemdağspor72%
×Draw16%
Modafen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1877 Alemdağspor
2.67
Modafen
1.00

1877 Alemdağspor creates 167% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.67
Modafen
0.67

allows per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.33
Modafen
3.67

finishing

1877 Alemdağspor+0.00on par
Modafen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1877 Alemdağspor ↓

Modafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1877 Alemdağspor or draw
88%
1877 Alemdağspor or Modafen
84%
Draw or Modafen
28%

Winning margin

1877 Alemdağspor wins by 2+
51%
Modafen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

1877 Alemdağspor 1+ goals
93%
1877 Alemdağspor 2+ goals
74%
1877 Alemdağspor 3+ goals
49%
Modafen 1+ goals
63%
Modafen 2+ goals
26%
Modafen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

1877 Alemdağspor (draw refunded)
86%
Modafen (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1877 Alemdağspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Modafen away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1877 Alemdağspor attack 1.67 + Modafen defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Modafen attack 0.67 + 1877 Alemdağspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

1877 Alemdağspor scores more
72%
level
16%
Modafen scores more
12%

1877 Alemdağspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "1877 Alemdağspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1877 Alemdağspor vs Modafen

1877 Alemdağspor beat Modafen 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on August 28, 2019.

The match was played at Alemdağ Stadyumu in İstanbul.