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1877 Alemdağspor vs Çatalcaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1877 Alemdağspor
1877 Alemdağspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Çatalcaspor
Çatalcaspor
9/10/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundŞile Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1877 Alemdağspor65%
×Draw21%
Çatalcaspor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1877 Alemdağspor
2.00
Çatalcaspor
0.83

1877 Alemdağspor creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.67
Çatalcaspor
0.33

allows per match

1877 Alemdağspor
1.33
Çatalcaspor
2.33

finishing

1877 Alemdağspor+0.00on par
Çatalcaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1877 Alemdağspor ↓

Çatalcaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1877 Alemdağspor or draw
85%
1877 Alemdağspor or Çatalcaspor
79%
Draw or Çatalcaspor
35%

Winning margin

1877 Alemdağspor wins by 2+
40%
Çatalcaspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

1877 Alemdağspor 1+ goals
86%
1877 Alemdağspor 2+ goals
59%
1877 Alemdağspor 3+ goals
32%
Çatalcaspor 1+ goals
56%
Çatalcaspor 2+ goals
20%
Çatalcaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

1877 Alemdağspor (draw refunded)
81%
Çatalcaspor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1877 Alemdağspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Çatalcaspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1877 Alemdağspor attack 1.67 + Çatalcaspor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Çatalcaspor attack 0.33 + 1877 Alemdağspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

1877 Alemdağspor scores more
65%
level
21%
Çatalcaspor scores more
15%

1877 Alemdağspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "1877 Alemdağspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 1877 Alemdağspor 2–0 Çatalcaspor

1877 Alemdağspor beat Çatalcaspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 10, 2019.

The match was played at Şile Stadı in Şile.