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1860 Rosenheim vs Hallbergmoos-Goldach — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

1860 Rosenheim
1860 Rosenheim
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
5/6/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1860 Rosenheim38%
×Draw22%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 Rosenheim
1.77
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

1860 Rosenheim
1.12
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
1.00

allows per match

1860 Rosenheim
2.65
Hallbergmoos-Goldach
2.41

finishing

1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par
Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 Rosenheim ↓

Hallbergmoos-Goldach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1860 Rosenheim or draw
60%
1860 Rosenheim or Hallbergmoos-Goldach
78%
Draw or Hallbergmoos-Goldach
62%

Winning margin

1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+
20%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals
83%
1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals
53%
1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals
26%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals
84%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals
54%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)
49%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 Rosenheim at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.12 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.00 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1860 Rosenheim scores more
38%
level
22%
Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more
40%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hallbergmoos-Goldach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 Rosenheim vs Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1860 Rosenheim and Hallbergmoos-Goldach drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Rosenheim.