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1860 München U19 vs Reutlingen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

1860 München U19
1860 München U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Reutlingen U19
Reutlingen U19
12/3/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

1860 München U1959%
×Draw20%
Reutlingen U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München U19
2.29
Reutlingen U19
1.33

1860 München U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

creates per match

1860 München U19
1.88
Reutlingen U19
1.06

allows per match

1860 München U19
1.61
Reutlingen U19
2.69

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par
Reutlingen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Reutlingen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw
78%
1860 München U19 or Reutlingen U19
80%
Draw or Reutlingen U19
41%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+
37%
Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals
90%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
66%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
40%
Reutlingen U19 1+ goals
74%
Reutlingen U19 2+ goals
38%
Reutlingen U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Reutlingen U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.88 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.29

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.06 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1860 München U19 scores more
59%
level
20%
Reutlingen U19 scores more
22%

1860 München U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Reutlingen U19

1860 München U19 beat Reutlingen U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz in München.