1860 München U19 2–2 Hertha BSC U19: Result & Stats

1860 München U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha BSC U19

F. Fodor 71'

E. Dursun 69'

K. Eichhorn 80'

J. Gottschalk 75'

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 1Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1930%

×Draw21%

Hertha BSC U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.05

1860 München U19

1.59

Hertha BSC U19

2.05

Hertha BSC U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 78 away

1.76

creates per match

2.46

1.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Hertha BSC U19

2.46

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Hertha BSC U19

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

52%

1860 München U19 or Hertha BSC U19

79%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

70%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

80%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

47%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

21%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.46 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

48%

Hertha BSC U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

S. Gouram← L. Kannewurf

69'

E. Dursun

71'

F. Fodor

73'

S. Hagenah← A. Traoré

75'

J. Gottschalk

80'

K. Eichhorn

82'

J. Schurz← M. Tekin

82'

L. Hohmann← E. Erdoğan

1860

Hertha

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

82'▲J. Schurz←▼M. Tekin

82'▲L. Hohmann←▼E. Erdoğan

1860 München U19 substitutes

SchurzHohmannGenidisFiedlerRexhajWagenspöckQela

Manager: M. Hartmann

61'▲S. Gouram←▼L. Kannewurf

73'▲S. Hagenah←▼A. Traoré

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

GouramHagenahIshionwuGündüzBrennCapoanoBah

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 2–2 Hertha BSC U19

1860 München U19 and Hertha BSC U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

Goals: E. Dursun (69'), F. Fodor (71'), J. Gottschalk (75'), K. Eichhorn (80').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz in München.

1860 München U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 2–2 Hertha BSC U19