1860 München U19 0–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1860 München U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

K. Affo 27', 12'

D. Mossi-Sezene 25'

2/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 4Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1937%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1939%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.66

1860 München U19

1.61

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

1.76

creates per match

1.68

1.64

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

61%

1860 München U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

63%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

18%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

80%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

48%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

37%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

39%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

K. Affo

25'

D. Mossi-Sezene

27'

K. Affo

46'

J. Schurz← G. Genidis

46'

L. Hohmann← M. Tekin

55'

L. Grancay← L. Azambuja

59'

Yang Si-Woo← D. Mossi-Sezene

78'

78'

87'

87'

87'

T. Malykh← L. Çalışkan

1860

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Affo

Nikolaou

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

46'▲J. Schurz←▼G. Genidis

46'▲L. Hohmann←▼M. Tekin

55'▲L. Grancay←▼L. Azambuja

1860 München U19 substitutes

SchurzHohmannGrancayDunkerMaySchafftRexhaj

Manager: E. Vural

59'▲Yang Si-Woo←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

78'▲A. El-Chaar←▼M. Len

78'▲E. Arden←▼A. Slimani

87'▲M. Kurze←▼N. Egouli

87'▲T. Igwesi←▼K. Affo

87'▲T. Malykh←▼L. Çalışkan

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

Si-WooEl-ChaarArdenKurzeIgwesiMalykhGavenko

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat 1860 München U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Affo (12', 27'), D. Mossi-Sezene (25').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz in München.

1860 München U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19