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1860 München U19 vs Eintracht Trier U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

1860 München U19
1860 München U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Trier U19
Eintracht Trier U19
10/2/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

1860 München U1973%
×Draw16%
Eintracht Trier U1911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München U19
2.54
Eintracht Trier U19
0.86

1860 München U19 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 10 away

creates per match

1860 München U19
1.88
Eintracht Trier U19
0.10

allows per match

1860 München U19
1.61
Eintracht Trier U19
3.20

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Eintracht Trier U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw
89%
1860 München U19 or Eintracht Trier U19
84%
Draw or Eintracht Trier U19
27%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+
51%
Eintracht Trier U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals
92%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
72%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
46%
Eintracht Trier U19 1+ goals
58%
Eintracht Trier U19 2+ goals
21%
Eintracht Trier U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
87%
Eintracht Trier U19 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Eintracht Trier U19 away — creates 0.10, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.88 + Eintracht Trier U19 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.54

Eintracht Trier U19 attack 0.10 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

1860 München U19 scores more
73%
level
16%
Eintracht Trier U19 scores more
11%

1860 München U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Eintracht Trier U19

1860 München U19 beat Eintracht Trier U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.