1860 München U19 3–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

1860 München U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

T. Kloss 83'

D. Sür 69'

N. Wicht 41'

L. Safranek 64'

10/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

1860 München U1951%

×Draw22%

Astoria Walldorf U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.44

1860 München U19

2.02

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.44

1860 München U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

1.26

1.61

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.88

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.61

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

72%

1860 München U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

78%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

49%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

29%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

87%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

60%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

33%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

76%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

42%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.88 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

51%

level

22%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

28%

1860 München U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

N. Wicht

64'

L. Safranek

69'

D. Sür

70'

M. Jägerbauer← A. Mushla

70'

M. Zimmermann← M. Bangerter

70'

M. Hütter← T. Bauer

70'

P. Kohlstadt← L. Baumert

80'

M. Pignotti← F. Wagner

83'

T. Kloss

88'

C. Mila-Baier← T. Marošević

88'

A. Dönmez← A. Müller

88'

J. Thunert← E. Bulut

90+1'

M. Gevorgyan← D. Sür

1860

Astoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Sür

Ouro-Tagb

▼

Mushla

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

70'▲M. Jägerbauer←▼A. Mushla

70'▲M. Zimmermann←▼M. Bangerter

88'▲C. Mila-Baier←▼T. Marošević

90+1'▲M. Gevorgyan←▼D. Sür

1860 München U19 substitutes

JägerbauerZimmermannMila-BaierGevorgyanLeoneRiedmüllerOtt

Manager: Roberto Pinto

70'▲M. Hütter←▼T. Bauer

70'▲P. Kohlstadt←▼L. Baumert

80'▲M. Pignotti←▼F. Wagner

88'▲A. Dönmez←▼A. Müller

88'▲J. Thunert←▼E. Bulut

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

HütterKohlstadtPignottiDönmezThunertHetemiOnohiol

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 3–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

1860 München U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 30, 2022.

Goals: N. Wicht (41'), L. Safranek (64'), D. Sür (69'), T. Kloss (83').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.

1860 München U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 3–1 Astoria Walldorf U19