1860 München II 2–0 Unterhaching II: Result & Stats

1860 München II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unterhaching II

9/28/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 13Sportanlage Gilching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

1860 München II67%

×Draw19%

Unterhaching II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München IIExpected goals in this matchUnterhaching II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.93

1860 München II

2.23

Unterhaching II

0.93

1860 München II creates 140% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

2.27

creates per match

1.00

0.85

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

1860 München II

2.27

Unterhaching II

1.00

allows per match

1860 München II

0.85

Unterhaching II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par

Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Unterhaching II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw

86%

1860 München II or Unterhaching II

81%

Draw or Unterhaching II

33%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+

43%

Unterhaching II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals

89%

1860 München II 2+ goals

65%

1860 München II 3+ goals

38%

Unterhaching II 1+ goals

61%

Unterhaching II 2+ goals

24%

Unterhaching II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)

82%

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Unterhaching II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Unterhaching II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.23

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

1860 München II scores more

67%

level

19%

Unterhaching II scores more

14%

1860 München II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff