1860 München II 4–1 Nordlingen: Result & Stats

1860 München II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nordlingen

3/23/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Sportanlage Gilching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

1860 München II54%

×Draw21%

Nordlingen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München IIExpected goals in this matchNordlingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.40

1860 München II

2.15

Nordlingen

1.40

1860 München II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

2.27

creates per match

1.95

0.85

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

1860 München II

2.27

Nordlingen

1.95

allows per match

1860 München II

0.85

Nordlingen

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par

Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Nordlingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw

75%

1860 München II or Nordlingen

79%

Draw or Nordlingen

46%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+

33%

Nordlingen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals

88%

1860 München II 2+ goals

63%

1860 München II 3+ goals

36%

Nordlingen 1+ goals

75%

Nordlingen 2+ goals

41%

Nordlingen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)

69%

Nordlingen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.15

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

1860 München II scores more

54%

level

21%

Nordlingen scores more

25%

1860 München II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff