Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1860 München II vs Kirchheimer SC — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

1860 München II
1860 München II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
9/9/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 10Sportanlage Gilching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1860 München II71%
×Draw17%
Kirchheimer SC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München II
2.31
Kirchheimer SC
0.78

1860 München II creates 196% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

1860 München II
2.27
Kirchheimer SC
0.71

allows per match

1860 München II
0.85
Kirchheimer SC
2.35

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par
Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Kirchheimer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw
89%
1860 München II or Kirchheimer SC
83%
Draw or Kirchheimer SC
29%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+
48%
Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals
90%
1860 München II 2+ goals
67%
1860 München II 3+ goals
40%
Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
54%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
18%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)
87%
Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.31

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

1860 München II scores more
71%
level
17%
Kirchheimer SC scores more
11%

1860 München II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: 1860 München II 5–1 Kirchheimer SC

1860 München II beat Kirchheimer SC 5-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gilching in Gilching.