1461 Trabzon FK 0–2 Yomraspor: Result & Stats

1461 Trabzon FK

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yomraspor

9/12/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundAhmet Suat Özyazıcı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1461 Trabzon FK55%

×Draw24%

Yomraspor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1461 Trabzon FKExpected goals in this matchYomraspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.92

1461 Trabzon FK

1.69

Yomraspor

0.92

1461 Trabzon FK creates 84% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Yomraspor

1.00

allows per match

1461 Trabzon FK

0.83

Yomraspor

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1461 Trabzon FK ↓

Yomraspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

1461 Trabzon FK or draw

80%

1461 Trabzon FK or Yomraspor

76%

Draw or Yomraspor

45%

Winning margin

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

30%

Yomraspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

82%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

50%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

24%

Yomraspor 1+ goals

60%

Yomraspor 2+ goals

23%

Yomraspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

73%

Yomraspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1461 Trabzon FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1461 Trabzon FK attack 2.00 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

55%

level

24%

Yomraspor scores more

20%

1461 Trabzon FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "1461 Trabzon FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff