1461 Trabzon FK 4–0 Serhat Ardahanspor

1461 Trabzon FK

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Serhat Ardahanspor

9/3/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundOf İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1461 Trabzon FK81%

×Draw14%

Serhat Ardahanspor5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1461 Trabzon FKExpected goals in this matchSerhat Ardahanspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.41

1461 Trabzon FK

2.33

Serhat Ardahanspor

0.41

1461 Trabzon FK creates 468% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.00

0.83

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Serhat Ardahanspor

0.00

allows per match

1461 Trabzon FK

0.83

Serhat Ardahanspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Serhat Ardahanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1461 Trabzon FK ↓

Serhat Ardahanspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

1461 Trabzon FK or draw

95%

1461 Trabzon FK or Serhat Ardahanspor

86%

Draw or Serhat Ardahanspor

19%

Winning margin

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

57%

Serhat Ardahanspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

90%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

67%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

41%

Serhat Ardahanspor 1+ goals

34%

Serhat Ardahanspor 2+ goals

6%

Serhat Ardahanspor 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

94%

Serhat Ardahanspor (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1461 Trabzon FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Serhat Ardahanspor away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1461 Trabzon FK attack 2.00 + Serhat Ardahanspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Serhat Ardahanspor attack 0.00 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

81%

level

14%

Serhat Ardahanspor scores more

5%

1461 Trabzon FK at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "1461 Trabzon FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff