1461 Trabzon FK 0–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

1461 Trabzon FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Başakşehir

12/4/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundVakfıkebir İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1461 Trabzon FK49%

×Draw25%

Başakşehir26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1461 Trabzon FKExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

1461 Trabzon FK

1.63

Başakşehir

1.13

1461 Trabzon FK creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.42

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Başakşehir

1.42

allows per match

1461 Trabzon FK

0.83

Başakşehir

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1461 Trabzon FK ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

1461 Trabzon FK or draw

74%

1461 Trabzon FK or Başakşehir

75%

Draw or Başakşehir

51%

Winning margin

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

26%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

80%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

48%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

22%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

68%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

31%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

65%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1461 Trabzon FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1461 Trabzon FK attack 2.00 + Başakşehir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Başakşehir attack 1.42 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

49%

level

25%

Başakşehir scores more

26%

1461 Trabzon FK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "1461 Trabzon FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff