1461 Trabzon FK 0–0 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

1461 Trabzon FK

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adana Demirspor

9/25/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundVakfıkebir İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1461 Trabzon FK71%

×Draw19%

Adana Demirspor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1461 Trabzon FKExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.58

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Adana Demirspor

0.58

1461 Trabzon FK creates 245% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Adana Demirspor

0.33

allows per match

1461 Trabzon FK

0.83

Adana Demirspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1461 Trabzon FK ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

1461 Trabzon FK or draw

90%

1461 Trabzon FK or Adana Demirspor

81%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

29%

Winning margin

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

45%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

86%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

59%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

32%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

44%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

12%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

88%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1461 Trabzon FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1461 Trabzon FK attack 2.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

71%

level

19%

Adana Demirspor scores more

10%

1461 Trabzon FK at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "1461 Trabzon FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff