12 de Octubre 0–0 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

12 de Octubre

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Martin Ledesma

7/7/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

12 de Octubre41%

×Draw27%

Martin Ledesma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

12 de OctubreExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

12 de Octubre

1.31

Martin Ledesma

1.13

12 de Octubre creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.27

creates per match

0.88

1.37

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

12 de Octubre

1.27

Martin Ledesma

0.88

allows per match

12 de Octubre

1.37

Martin Ledesma

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Octubre ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

12 de Octubre or draw

68%

12 de Octubre or Martin Ledesma

73%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

59%

Winning margin

12 de Octubre wins by 2+

18%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

12 de Octubre 1+ goals

73%

12 de Octubre 2+ goals

38%

12 de Octubre 3+ goals

14%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

68%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

31%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)

56%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Martin Ledesma attack 0.88 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

12 de Octubre scores more

41%

level

27%

Martin Ledesma scores more

32%

12 de Octubre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

H. Benitez← E. Céspedes

45'

C. Benítez← I. Cáceres

54'

R. Vera← Jorge Romero

60'

66'

72'

76'

O. Fernández← F. Ocampos

77'

A. Quintana← C. Mora

84'

A. Mendoza← B. Escobar

85'

I. Paniagua← D. Cabañas

12

Martin

13

32

4

34

2

14

▼

Mora

10

Balbuena

11

▼

Céspedes

16

▼

Cáceres

6

Villamayo

17

▼

Cabañas

12

Campuzano

8

▼

18

17

6

10

▼

2

3

4

14

▼

Escobar

20

González

Manager: J. Mendieta

54'▲R. Vera←▼Jorge Romero

76'▲O. Fernández←▼F. Ocampos

84'▲A. Mendoza←▼B. Escobar

12 de Octubre substitutes

13Vera11Fernández9Mendoza1Castillo5Enciso16Díaz19León

Manager: M. Cristaldo

45'▲H. Benitez←▼E. Céspedes

45'▲C. Benítez←▼I. Cáceres

77'▲A. Quintana←▼C. Mora

85'▲I. Paniagua←▼D. Cabañas

Martin Ledesma substitutes

31Benitez22Benítez8Quintana20Paniagua21Barrientos1Serdán9Zorrilla