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12 de Octubre vs Independiente F.b.c. — Division Intermedia 2018

12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
FT
1 – 0
Independiente F.b.c.
Independiente F.b.c.
6/2/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio (Itauguá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

12 de Octubre37%
×Draw27%
Independiente F.b.c.36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

12 de Octubre
1.28
Independiente F.b.c.
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 99 away

creates per match

12 de Octubre
1.27
Independiente F.b.c.
1.14

allows per match

12 de Octubre
1.37
Independiente F.b.c.
1.29

finishing

12 de Octubre+0.00on par
Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Octubre ↓

Independiente F.b.c. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

12 de Octubre or draw
64%
12 de Octubre or Independiente F.b.c.
73%
Draw or Independiente F.b.c.
63%

Winning margin

12 de Octubre wins by 2+
16%
Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

12 de Octubre 1+ goals
72%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
37%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
14%
Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals
71%
Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals
36%
Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
51%
Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Independiente F.b.c. away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.14 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

12 de Octubre scores more
37%
level
27%
Independiente F.b.c. scores more
36%

12 de Octubre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 12 de Octubre 1–0 Independiente F.b.c.

12 de Octubre beat Independiente F.b.c. 1-0 in Division Intermedia on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio (Itauguá).