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12 de Octubre vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
FT
1 – 0
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
9/21/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio (Itauguá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

12 de Octubre37%
×Draw27%
Fernando De La Mora37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

12 de Octubre
1.27
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

creates per match

12 de Octubre
1.27
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

12 de Octubre
1.37
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

12 de Octubre+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Octubre ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

12 de Octubre or draw
63%
12 de Octubre or Fernando De La Mora
73%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
63%

Winning margin

12 de Octubre wins by 2+
16%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

12 de Octubre 1+ goals
72%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
36%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
14%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
72%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
36%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
50%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

12 de Octubre scores more
37%
level
27%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
37%

12 de Octubre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

12 de Octubre 1 – 0 Fernando De La Mora

12 de Octubre beat Fernando De La Mora 1-0 in Division Intermedia on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio (Itauguá).