12 de Octubre 0–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

12 de Octubre

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

9/15/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

12 de Octubre33%

×Draw27%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

12 de OctubreExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.29

12 de Octubre

1.16

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.29

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 92 away

1.27

creates per match

1.20

1.37

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

12 de Octubre

1.27

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

12 de Octubre

1.37

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Octubre ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

12 de Octubre or draw

61%

12 de Octubre or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

73%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

67%

Winning margin

12 de Octubre wins by 2+

14%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

12 de Octubre 1+ goals

69%

12 de Octubre 2+ goals

32%

12 de Octubre 3+ goals

11%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

72%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

37%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)

46%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

12 de Octubre scores more

33%

level

27%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

39%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff