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12 de Octubre vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Atyrá
Atyrá
6/2/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

12 de Octubre41%
×Draw26%
Atyrá33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

12 de Octubre
1.41
Atyrá
1.25

12 de Octubre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

12 de Octubre
1.27
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

12 de Octubre
1.37
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

12 de Octubre+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Octubre ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

12 de Octubre or draw
67%
12 de Octubre or Atyrá
74%
Draw or Atyrá
59%

Winning margin

12 de Octubre wins by 2+
19%
Atyrá wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

12 de Octubre 1+ goals
76%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
41%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
17%
Atyrá 1+ goals
71%
Atyrá 2+ goals
36%
Atyrá 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
55%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atyrá attack 1.13 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

12 de Octubre scores more
41%
level
26%
Atyrá scores more
33%

12 de Octubre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 12 de Octubre vs Atyrá

12 de Octubre beat Atyrá 3-0 in Division Intermedia on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio in Itauguá.