12 de Octubre vs 24 de Setiembre — Division Intermedia 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
12 de Octubre45%
24 de Setiembre29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
12 de Octubre creates 29% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
12 de Octubre ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
12 de Octubre at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches
24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
12 de Octubre attack 1.27 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54
24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
12 de Octubre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Club River Plate
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Fernando De La Mora
Guairena FC
2 De Mayo
Rubio NU
Fulgencio Yegros
Resistencia
Deportivo Liberacion
Sportivo Trinidense
Ri 3 Corrales
Ovetense FC
General Caballero
Sportivo Iteno
Deportivo Caaguazu
Martin LedesmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
12 de Octubre host 24 de Setiembre on Saturday, 29 July 2023 at 14:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2018/2019 season.
Division Intermedia: 12 de Octubre 1–0 24 de Setiembre
12 de Octubre beat 24 de Setiembre 1-0 in Division Intermedia on July 29, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio in Itauguá.