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12 de Junio VH vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

12 de Junio VH
12 de Junio VH
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
8/12/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Facundo de León Fossati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

12 de Junio VH53%
×Draw24%
Atlético Colegiales23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

12 de Junio VH
1.69
Atlético Colegiales
1.04

12 de Junio VH creates 63% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 44 away

creates per match

12 de Junio VH
1.33
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

12 de Junio VH
1.11
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

12 de Junio VH+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Junio VH ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

12 de Junio VH or draw
77%
12 de Junio VH or Atlético Colegiales
76%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
47%

Winning margin

12 de Junio VH wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

12 de Junio VH 1+ goals
82%
12 de Junio VH 2+ goals
50%
12 de Junio VH 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

12 de Junio VH (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Junio VH at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Junio VH attack 1.33 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + 12 de Junio VH defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

12 de Junio VH scores more
53%
level
24%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
23%

12 de Junio VH at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "12 de Junio VH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 12 de Junio VH vs Atlético Colegiales

12 de Junio VH beat Atlético Colegiales 4-1 in Division Intermedia on August 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo de León Fossati in Villa Hayes.