12 Bingölspor 3–0 Mardin 1969: Result & Stats

12 Bingölspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mardin 1969

9/2/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBingöl Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

12 Bingölspor37%

×Draw20%

Mardin 196944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

12 BingölsporExpected goals in this matchMardin 1969

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

2.38

12 Bingölspor

2.19

Mardin 1969

2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

1.75

3.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

12 Bingölspor

2.00

Mardin 1969

1.75

allows per match

12 Bingölspor

3.00

Mardin 1969

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

12 Bingölspor+0.00on par

Mardin 1969+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 Bingölspor ↓

Mardin 1969 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

12 Bingölspor or draw

56%

12 Bingölspor or Mardin 1969

80%

Draw or Mardin 1969

63%

Winning margin

12 Bingölspor wins by 2+

20%

Mardin 1969 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

12 Bingölspor 1+ goals

89%

12 Bingölspor 2+ goals

64%

12 Bingölspor 3+ goals

37%

Mardin 1969 1+ goals

91%

Mardin 1969 2+ goals

68%

Mardin 1969 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)

46%

Mardin 1969 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 Bingölspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Mardin 1969 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 Bingölspor attack 2.00 + Mardin 1969 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Mardin 1969 attack 1.75 + 12 Bingölspor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

12 Bingölspor scores more

37%

level

20%

Mardin 1969 scores more

44%

Mardin 1969 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mardin 1969 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff