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1074 Çankırıspor vs Rizespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1074 Çankırıspor
1074 Çankırıspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rizespor
Rizespor
10/29/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇankırı Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

1074 Çankırıspor41%
×Draw22%
Rizespor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1074 Çankırıspor
1.83
Rizespor
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

1074 Çankırıspor
1.80
Rizespor
1.23

allows per match

1074 Çankırıspor
2.20
Rizespor
1.85

finishing

1074 Çankırıspor+0.00on par
Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1074 Çankırıspor ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

1074 Çankırıspor or draw
63%
1074 Çankırıspor or Rizespor
78%
Draw or Rizespor
59%

Winning margin

1074 Çankırıspor wins by 2+
22%
Rizespor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

1074 Çankırıspor 1+ goals
84%
1074 Çankırıspor 2+ goals
54%
1074 Çankırıspor 3+ goals
28%
Rizespor 1+ goals
82%
Rizespor 2+ goals
51%
Rizespor 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

1074 Çankırıspor (draw refunded)
53%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1074 Çankırıspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1074 Çankırıspor attack 1.80 + Rizespor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rizespor attack 1.23 + 1074 Çankırıspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

1074 Çankırıspor scores more
41%
level
22%
Rizespor scores more
37%

1074 Çankırıspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "1074 Çankırıspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 1074 Çankırıspor 1–3 Rizespor

Rizespor beat 1074 Çankırıspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at Çankırı Atatürk Stadyumu in Çankırı.