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1074 Çankırıspor vs Boyabat 1868 Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

1074 Çankırıspor
1074 Çankırıspor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Boyabat 1868 Spor
Boyabat 1868 Spor
9/15/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundÇankırı Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

1074 Çankırıspor38%
×Draw23%
Boyabat 1868 Spor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1074 Çankırıspor
1.60
Boyabat 1868 Spor
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

1074 Çankırıspor
1.80
Boyabat 1868 Spor
1.00

allows per match

1074 Çankırıspor
2.20
Boyabat 1868 Spor
1.40

finishing

1074 Çankırıspor+0.00on par
Boyabat 1868 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1074 Çankırıspor ↓

Boyabat 1868 Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

1074 Çankırıspor or draw
62%
1074 Çankırıspor or Boyabat 1868 Spor
77%
Draw or Boyabat 1868 Spor
62%

Winning margin

1074 Çankırıspor wins by 2+
19%
Boyabat 1868 Spor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

1074 Çankırıspor 1+ goals
80%
1074 Çankırıspor 2+ goals
47%
1074 Çankırıspor 3+ goals
22%
Boyabat 1868 Spor 1+ goals
80%
Boyabat 1868 Spor 2+ goals
47%
Boyabat 1868 Spor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

1074 Çankırıspor (draw refunded)
50%
Boyabat 1868 Spor (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1074 Çankırıspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Boyabat 1868 Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1074 Çankırıspor attack 1.80 + Boyabat 1868 Spor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Boyabat 1868 Spor attack 1.00 + 1074 Çankırıspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

1074 Çankırıspor scores more
38%
level
23%
Boyabat 1868 Spor scores more
38%

1074 Çankırıspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "1074 Çankırıspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 1074 Çankırıspor 0–4 Boyabat 1868 Spor

Boyabat 1868 Spor beat 1074 Çankırıspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 15, 2022.

The match was played at Çankırı Atatürk Stadyumu in Çankırı.