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1. SC Feucht vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
9/28/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 12Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

1. SC Feucht22%
×Draw20%
Gebenbach59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. SC Feucht
1.38
Gebenbach
2.35

Gebenbach creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

1. SC Feucht
1.17
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

1. SC Feucht
2.71
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. SC Feucht ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

1. SC Feucht or draw
41%
1. SC Feucht or Gebenbach
80%
Draw or Gebenbach
78%

Winning margin

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
9%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
75%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
40%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
16%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
90%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
68%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
27%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. SC Feucht at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. SC Feucht attack 1.17 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1. SC Feucht scores more
22%
level
20%
Gebenbach scores more
59%

Gebenbach at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: 1. SC Feucht 0–2 Gebenbach

Gebenbach beat 1. SC Feucht 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Feucht.