1. SC Feucht 1–4 Eltersdorf: Result & Stats

1. SC Feucht

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Eltersdorf

J. Kussmann 48'

R. Renner 72'

C. Kracun 69'

M. Gobhardt 57' (pen)

T. Herzner 32'

11/4/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

1. SC Feucht19%

×Draw20%

Eltersdorf62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. SC FeuchtExpected goals in this matchEltersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.25

1. SC Feucht

1.15

Eltersdorf

2.25

Eltersdorf creates 96% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

1.17

creates per match

1.78

2.71

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

1. SC Feucht

1.17

Eltersdorf

1.78

allows per match

1. SC Feucht

2.71

Eltersdorf

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. SC Feucht ↓

Eltersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

1. SC Feucht or draw

38%

1. SC Feucht or Eltersdorf

80%

Draw or Eltersdorf

81%

Winning margin

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+

7%

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals

68%

1. SC Feucht 2+ goals

32%

1. SC Feucht 3+ goals

11%

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

89%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

65%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)

23%

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. SC Feucht at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. SC Feucht attack 1.17 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

1. SC Feucht scores more

19%

level

20%

Eltersdorf scores more

62%

Eltersdorf at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

T. Herzner

48'

J. Kussmann

57'

M. GobhardtPenalty

69'

C. Kracun

72'

R. Renner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff