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1. SC Feucht vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Coburg
Coburg
3/5/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

1. SC Feucht33%
×Draw21%
Coburg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. SC Feucht
1.76
Coburg
2.12

Coburg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

1. SC Feucht
1.17
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

1. SC Feucht
2.71
Coburg
2.35

finishing

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. SC Feucht ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

1. SC Feucht or draw
54%
1. SC Feucht or Coburg
79%
Draw or Coburg
67%

Winning margin

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
16%
Coburg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
83%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
52%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
26%
Coburg 1+ goals
88%
Coburg 2+ goals
62%
Coburg 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
41%
Coburg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. SC Feucht at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. SC Feucht attack 1.17 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.76

Coburg attack 1.53 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. SC Feucht scores more
33%
level
21%
Coburg scores more
46%

Coburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: 1. SC Feucht 1–3 Coburg

Coburg beat 1. SC Feucht 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Feucht.