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1. Maj Ruma vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
0 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
11/7/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

1. Maj Ruma51%
×Draw25%
Stari Grad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.59
Stari Grad
1.00

1. Maj Ruma creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 34 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
76%
1. Maj Ruma or Stari Grad
75%
Draw or Stari Grad
49%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
27%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
80%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
47%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
21%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
63%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
26%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
68%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
51%
level
25%
Stari Grad scores more
24%

1. Maj Ruma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. Maj Ruma vs Stari Grad

1. Maj Ruma and Stari Grad drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.