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1. Maj Ruma vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
4 – 0
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
4/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

1. Maj Ruma54%
×Draw24%
Sloga Čonoplja22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.67
Sloga Čonoplja
0.97

1. Maj Ruma creates 72% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 49 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
78%
1. Maj Ruma or Sloga Čonoplja
76%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
46%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
29%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
81%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
50%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
23%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
62%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
25%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
71%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
54%
level
24%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
22%

1. Maj Ruma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. Maj Ruma vs Sloga Čonoplja

1. Maj Ruma beat Sloga Čonoplja 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.