1. Maj Ruma 0–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1. Maj Ruma

FT

0 – 1

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

4/24/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

1. Maj Ruma59%

×Draw23%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Maj RumaExpected goals in this matchSloboda Novi Kozarci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.84

1. Maj Ruma

1.75

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

0.84

1. Maj Ruma creates 108% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.25

creates per match

0.79

0.90

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma

1.25

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

0.79

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw

82%

1. Maj Ruma or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

77%

Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

41%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

33%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

83%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

52%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

25%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

57%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

21%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

77%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more

59%

level

23%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

18%

1. Maj Ruma at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff