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1. Maj Ruma vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
2 – 3
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
6/5/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 38Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

1. Maj Ruma29%
×Draw27%
Mladost Novi Sad44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.07
Mladost Novi Sad
1.37

Mladost Novi Sad creates 28% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Mladost Novi Sad
1.84

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
56%
1. Maj Ruma or Mladost Novi Sad
73%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
71%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
11%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
66%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
29%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
9%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
75%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
40%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
40%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
29%
level
27%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
44%

Mladost Novi Sad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 2–3 Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat 1. Maj Ruma 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.