1. Maj Ruma 3–1 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1. Maj Ruma

FT

3 – 1

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

4/20/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

1. Maj Ruma50%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Maj RumaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.97

1. Maj Ruma

1.52

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

0.97

1. Maj Ruma creates 57% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 78 away

1.25

creates per match

1.03

0.90

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma

1.25

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw

76%

1. Maj Ruma or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

50%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

78%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

45%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

20%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

62%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

67%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more

50%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

24%

1. Maj Ruma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff