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1. Maj Ruma vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
3 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
4/3/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

1. Maj Ruma67%
×Draw20%
Dunav Stari Banovci13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
2.00
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.73

1. Maj Ruma creates 174% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
87%
1. Maj Ruma or Dunav Stari Banovci
80%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
33%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
42%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
86%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
59%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
32%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
52%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
17%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
84%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
67%
level
20%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
13%

1. Maj Ruma at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 3–0 Dunav Stari Banovci

1. Maj Ruma beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.