1. Maj Ruma 2–0 Backa: Result & Stats

1. Maj Ruma

FT

2 – 0

Backa

3/4/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

1. Maj Ruma52%

×Draw26%

Backa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Maj RumaExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.84

1. Maj Ruma

1.48

Backa

0.84

1. Maj Ruma creates 76% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 37 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

0.90

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma

1.25

Backa

0.78

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

Backa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw

79%

1. Maj Ruma or Backa

74%

Draw or Backa

48%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

27%

Backa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

77%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

43%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

19%

Backa 1+ goals

57%

Backa 2+ goals

21%

Backa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

71%

Backa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Backa attack 0.78 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more

52%

level

26%

Backa scores more

21%

1. Maj Ruma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff