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1. Maj Ruma vs Bačka 1901 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
1 – 0
Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
3/17/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

1. Maj Ruma50%
×Draw25%
Bačka 190125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.63
Bačka 1901
1.08

1. Maj Ruma creates 51% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 27 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Bačka 1901
1.26

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Bačka 1901
2.00

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Bačka 1901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
75%
1. Maj Ruma or Bačka 1901
75%
Draw or Bačka 1901
50%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
26%
Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
80%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
48%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
22%
Bačka 1901 1+ goals
66%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
29%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
67%
Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
50%
level
25%
Bačka 1901 scores more
25%

1. Maj Ruma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. Maj Ruma vs Bačka 1901

1. Maj Ruma beat Bačka 1901 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.