1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 04: Result & Stats

1. FC Nürnberg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

S. Tzimas 38', 2'

B. Kanuric 79'

1/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Valznerweiher Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg58%

×Draw19%

FC Ingolstadt 0423%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC NürnbergExpected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.54

1. FC Nürnberg

2.48

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.54

1. FC Nürnberg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.29

creates per match

1.50

1.57

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg

2.29

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.50

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg

1.57

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw

77%

1. FC Nürnberg or FC Ingolstadt 04

81%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

42%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+

37%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals

92%

1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals

70%

1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals

44%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

79%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

45%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)

71%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 2.29 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.48

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.50 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more

58%

level

19%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

23%

1. FC Nürnberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "1. FC Nürnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Tzimas

38'

S. Tzimas

79'

B. Kanuric

1.

FC

41

43

19

3

20

34

17

8

⚽

29

9

11

1

2

3

4

6

9

⚽2

10

17

20

31

44

Manager: Miroslav Klose

1. FC Nürnberg substitutes

39Ortegel5Drexler30Emreli33Seidel43Hofmann

Manager: Sabrina Wittmann

FC Ingolstadt 04 substitutes

46Dehler7Borkowski14Plath16Malone23Seiffert30Drakulic35Pestel37Testroet

Friendlies Clubs: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 04

1. FC Nürnberg beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Tzimas (2', 38'), B. Kanuric (79').

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher Kunstrasenplatz in Nuremberg.

1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 04