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1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
12/21/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg49%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Braunschweig27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Nürnberg
1.67
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.16

1. FC Nürnberg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 87 away

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.99

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw
73%
1. FC Nürnberg or Eintracht Braunschweig
76%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
51%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
26%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
81%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
50%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
23%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
69%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
65%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.35 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.67

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more
49%
level
24%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
27%

1. FC Nürnberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "1. FC Nürnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig

1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.