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1.FC Monchengladbach vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
CANC
14:00
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
12/6/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach27%
×Draw20%
TVD Velbert54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.70
TVD Velbert
2.43

TVD Velbert creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 72 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
46%
1.FC Monchengladbach or TVD Velbert
80%
Draw or TVD Velbert
73%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
13%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
82%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
51%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
24%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
91%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
69%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
33%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
27%
level
20%
TVD Velbert scores more
54%

TVD Velbert at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1.FC Monchengladbach vs TVD Velbert — Match Preview

1.FC Monchengladbach face TVD Velbert on December 6, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

1.FC Monchengladbach host TVD Velbert at Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.