Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1.FC Monchengladbach vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
6/11/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 11Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach27%
×Draw20%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.64
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
2.34

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
47%
1.FC Monchengladbach or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
80%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
73%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
13%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
81%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
49%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
90%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
67%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
34%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
27%
level
20%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
53%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: 1.FC Monchengladbach 0–1 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf beat 1.FC Monchengladbach 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2 in Mönchengladbach.