1.FC Monchengladbach 1–2 SF Niederwenigern

1.FC Monchengladbach

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SF Niederwenigern

4/2/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 1Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach31%

×Draw20%

SF Niederwenigern49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1.FC MonchengladbachExpected goals in this matchSF Niederwenigern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.32

1.FC Monchengladbach

1.85

SF Niederwenigern

2.32

SF Niederwenigern creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 38 away

1.33

creates per match

1.16

3.48

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach

1.33

SF Niederwenigern

1.16

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach

3.48

SF Niederwenigern

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

SF Niederwenigern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw

51%

1.FC Monchengladbach or SF Niederwenigern

80%

Draw or SF Niederwenigern

69%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+

16%

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals

84%

1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals

55%

1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals

28%

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

90%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

67%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

39%

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.85

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more

31%

level

20%

SF Niederwenigern scores more

49%

SF Niederwenigern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff