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1.FC Monchengladbach vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
CANC
14:00
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
3/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach22%
×Draw18%
SF Baumberg59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.63
SF Baumberg
2.69

SF Baumberg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 95 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
41%
1.FC Monchengladbach or SF Baumberg
82%
Draw or SF Baumberg
78%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
10%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
80%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
48%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
22%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
93%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
74%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
27%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
22%
level
18%
SF Baumberg scores more
59%

SF Baumberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1.FC Monchengladbach host SF Baumberg

March 7, 2021: 1.FC Monchengladbach take on SF Baumberg in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1.FC Monchengladbach host SF Baumberg at Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.