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1.FC Monchengladbach vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
FT
0 – 4
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
9/12/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach37%
×Draw20%
SC Velbert43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
2.08
SC Velbert
2.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
57%
1.FC Monchengladbach or SC Velbert
80%
Draw or SC Velbert
63%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
20%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
87%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
61%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
34%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
89%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
65%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
46%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
37%
level
20%
SC Velbert scores more
43%

SC Velbert at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: 1.FC Monchengladbach 0–4 SC Velbert

SC Velbert beat 1.FC Monchengladbach 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2 in Mönchengladbach.