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1.FC Monchengladbach vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
CANC
13:15
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
12/20/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach30%
×Draw19%
Jahn Hiesfeld51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.89
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.49

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
1.33
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach
3.48
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw
49%
1.FC Monchengladbach or Jahn Hiesfeld
81%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
70%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
15%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
85%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
56%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
29%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
92%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
71%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
37%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
30%
level
19%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
51%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1.FC Monchengladbach host Jahn Hiesfeld

December 20, 2020: 1.FC Monchengladbach take on Jahn Hiesfeld in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1.FC Monchengladbach host Jahn Hiesfeld at Ernst-Reuter-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.