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1. FC Merseburg vs Wacker Nordhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:30
Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
2/20/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg37%
×Draw26%
Wacker Nordhausen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.38
Wacker Nordhausen
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Wacker Nordhausen
1.03

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Wacker Nordhausen
2.20

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
63%
1. FC Merseburg or Wacker Nordhausen
74%
Draw or Wacker Nordhausen
63%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
17%
Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
75%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
40%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
16%
Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
75%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
40%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
50%
Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
37%
level
26%
Wacker Nordhausen scores more
37%

1. FC Merseburg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "1. FC Merseburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg face Wacker Nordhausen (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with 1. FC Merseburg hosting Wacker Nordhausen. Match starts February 20, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

1. FC Merseburg host Wacker Nordhausen at Stadtstadion Merseburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.