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1. FC Merseburg vs Rot-weiss Erfurt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Rot-weiss Erfurt
Rot-weiss Erfurt
5/15/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg10%
×Draw19%
Rot-weiss Erfurt71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
0.67
Rot-weiss Erfurt
2.13

Rot-weiss Erfurt creates 218% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Rot-weiss Erfurt
2.53

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Rot-weiss Erfurt
0.79

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Rot-weiss Erfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Rot-weiss Erfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
29%
1. FC Merseburg or Rot-weiss Erfurt
81%
Draw or Rot-weiss Erfurt
90%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
3%
Rot-weiss Erfurt wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
49%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
15%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
3%
Rot-weiss Erfurt 1+ goals
88%
Rot-weiss Erfurt 2+ goals
63%
Rot-weiss Erfurt 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
13%
Rot-weiss Erfurt (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Rot-weiss Erfurt away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Rot-weiss Erfurt defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.67

Rot-weiss Erfurt attack 2.53 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
10%
level
19%
Rot-weiss Erfurt scores more
71%

Rot-weiss Erfurt at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rot-weiss Erfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. FC Merseburg vs Rot-weiss Erfurt — Match Preview

1. FC Merseburg face Rot-weiss Erfurt on May 15, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

1. FC Merseburg host Rot-weiss Erfurt at Stadtstadion Merseburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.